Intelligence, Strategic Foresight and Warning, Risk Management, Forecasting or Futurism?

This article defines and briefly explains the various names and labels given to activities and practices anticipating or foreseeing the future. Indeed, from risk management to Strategic Foresight and Warning (SF&W) the field of anticipation includes many perspectives and practices centred on different themes. Meanwhile, various actors use different names for SF&W, or very similar approaches. It is thus important to clarify what various labels and names mean, even if borders between categories are often fuzzy.

$2 Billion for Next Gen Artificial Intelligence for U.S. Defence – Signal

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties Critical Uncertainty ➚➚➚ Disruption of the current AI-power race for private and public actors alike – The U.S. takes a very serious lead in the race. ➚➚  Accelerating expansion of AI ➚➚  Accelerating emergence of the AI-world ➚➚ Increased odds to see the U.S. consolidating its lead in the AI-power race ➚➚  Escalating AI-power […]

Impacts of Chinese Baidu new no-code tool to build AI-programs – Signal

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚➚ Accelerating expansion of AI ➚➚ Accelerating emergence of the AI-world ➚ Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines ➚ Escalating AI-power race notably between the U.S. and China. ➚ Rising challenge for the rest of the world to catch up ➚ China  influence and capability in terms […]

The Warming Ocean as Planetary Threat

This article looks at the way the warming ocean exerts a growing pressure on food security and the economy. It is a follow-up to “The U.S. Navy vs Climate Change Insecurity” (Jean-Michel Valantin, June 15, 2018), where we focused on the current climate and ocean change becoming a major strategic threat, because of the rapid […]

Artificial Intelligence, Computing Power and Geopolitics (2)

This article focuses on the political and geopolitical consequences of the feedback relationship linking Artificial Intelligence (AI) in its Deep Learning component and computing power – hardware – or rather high performance computing power (HPC). It builds on a first part where we explained and detailed this connection. Related Artificial Intelligence, Computing Power and Geopolitics […]

The U.S. Navy vs Climate and Ocean Change Insecurity (1)

The U.S. Navy is under higher and growing pressure from climate and ocean change. This situation is emphasized in The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Department of Defense Installations on Atolls in the Pacific Ocean (Curt D. Storlazzi, Stephen B. Gingerich et al., February 2018, full pdf report), funded among others by the Department […]

Being Serious about Europe’s Place in the World? The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
7 June 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Editorial Although the G7 summit is drawing near (starting 8 June 2018), it does not generate an overwhelming interest in terms of crowdsourced signals. Yet, German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for Europe to “Step Up in `World Being Reorganized’“, while the “EU College […]

Signal: The Pentagon Researches Artificial Intelligence Systems for Nuclear Missile Launch Anticipation

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚➚ Escalating AI-power race notably between the U.S. on the one hand, China and in a lesser way Russia on the other. ➚➚ Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines ➚➚ Rising uncertainty regarding the emerging AI-world ➚ Possible widening of the range of response, […]

Iran: Are European Firms Being Sacrificed Again? The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 31 May 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Editorial The evolution of the geopolitical situation around Iran increasingly  generates a feeling of déjà vu for European companies. Non-European actors, chiefly among them the U.S. take political, strategic and geopolitical  decisions in the name of their national interest (and lobby groups), including the interest […]

Signals: China Planetary 3D Strategy, Deep Sea Resources in the South China Sea

The April and May 2018 Chinese successful deep sea explorations in the South China Sea lead to novel future possibilities, including a rising uncertainty in the security and resource sectors for all actors, states and companies alike, involving a complete redrawing of the influence map, of the capabilities needed and relatedly of the strategies and policies to develop and implement.