probability

Having detailed the various potential scenarios for Libya’s future over the next three to five years, we shall now evaluate the likelihood of the scenarios thanks notably to their indicators. We shall use the methodology developed by The Red (Team) Analysis Society, building upon Heuer (“Assessing Probability of a Scenario”, in Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya’s Future – Scenario 1

This second article on The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb emphasises some of the author’s points that could be useful to foresight and warning and all work dealing with anticipation, from risk management to horizon scanning through early warning. Many of those themes are actually allowed by the … Continue reading Useful Rules for Foresight from Taleb’s The Black Swan

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Since Nassim Nicholas Taleb published his bestseller The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable back in 2007, “Black Swans” and “Black Swans events” have become part of everyday language. They are used as a catchphrase to mean two different things. First, as was the case recently in the Brookings interesting interactive “briefing book” Big Bets and … Continue reading Taleb’s Black Swans: The End of Foresight?

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Foreseeing the future, whatever the name given to the endeavour*, faces two major tasks. First, we have the analysis, the process according to which the foresight, forecast, or, more broadly, anticipation will be obtained. Second, the result must be delivered to and understood by those who need it because they will act on it, to … Continue reading Scenarios: Improving the Impact of Foresight Thanks to Biases

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Map, graph or network as model
Once an initial question is defined – for example, what will be the future of the modern nation-state for the next twenty years – most methodologies start with building a strategic foresight and warning model, which will describe and explain the issue or question at hand. In other words, we construct our underlying model for understanding. … Continue reading Creating a Foresight and Warning Model: Mapping a Dynamic Network (I)

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Actually, any SF&W model as it primarily deals with time should be a dynamic network. How can we expect obtaining any potential outline for the future if our model for understanding is static? … Continue reading Creating a Foresight or Warning Model: Mapping a Dynamic Network (II)