probability

Having detailed the various potential scenarios for Libya’s future over the next three to five years, we shall now evaluate the likelihood of the scenarios thanks notably to their indicators. We shall use the methodology developed by The Red (Team) Analysis Society, building upon Heuer (“Assessing Probability of a Scenario”, in Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya’s Future – Scenario 1

This second article on The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb emphasises some of the author’s points that could be useful to foresight and warning and all work dealing with anticipation, from risk management to horizon scanning through early warning. Many of those themes are actually allowed by the SF&W methodology, … Continue reading Useful Rules for Foresight from Taleb’s The Black Swan

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As the label “black swans” is increasingly used but with different interpretations, this post reviews Taleb’s bestseller, the meaning of black swans events and evaluates if the author truly points to the absurdity of foresight.

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If cognitive biases are the enemy of analysis, they can become the ally of the foresight practitioner delivering products to clients, with the use of fictionalized scenario narratives.

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Map, graph or network as model
Once an initial question is defined – for example, what will be the future of the modern nation-state for the next twenty years – most methodologies start with building a strategic foresight and warning model, which will describe and explain the issue or question at hand. In other words, we construct our underlying model for understanding. … Continue reading Creating a Foresight and Warning Model: Mapping a Dynamic Network (I)

Go back to Part 1
Actually, any SF&W model as it primarily deals with time should be a dynamic network. How can we expect obtaining any potential outline for the future if our model for understanding is static? … Continue reading Creating a Foresight or Warning Model: Mapping a Dynamic Network (II)