Tag Archives: probability

Having detailed the various potential scenarios for Libya’s future over the next three to five years, we shall now evaluate the likelihood of the scenarios thanks notably to their indicators. We shall use the methodology developed by The Red (Team) Analysis Society, building upon Heuer (“Assessing Probability of a Scenario”, in Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, … Continue reading Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya’s Future – Scenario 1

A review of Taleb’s points in The Black Swan that could be useful as rules for foresight and warning analysis.

As the label “black swans” is increasingly used but with different interpretations, this post reviews Taleb’s bestseller, the meaning of black swans events and evaluates if the author truly points to the absurdity of foresight.

If cognitive biases are the enemy of analysis, they can become the ally of the foresight practitioner delivering products to clients, with the use of fictionalized scenario narratives.

Map, graph or network as model Once an initial question is defined – for example, what will be the future of the modern nation-state for the next twenty years – most methodologies start with building a strategic foresight and warning model, which will describe and explain the issue or question at hand. In other words, … Continue reading Creating a Foresight and Warning Model: Mapping a Dynamic Network (I)

Go back to Part 1 Actually, any SF&W model as it primarily deals with time should be a dynamic network. How can we expect obtaining any potential outline for the future if our model for understanding is static?