Conflict in Ukraine – State of Play – The Oligarchic System

This article is the second of the series on the conflict in Ukraine and starts a review of the various domestic actors. It focuses on the oligarchic system, its dynamics and challenges. On 15 May 2014, steelworkers working for oligarch Rinat Akhmetov took over the city of Mariupol in the Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, as reported by Andrew Kramer for the New York Times, even if the People’s Republic of Donetsk seems to have kept power (e.g. Roza Kazan, 18 May 2014), after Akhmetov released a first statement video (see original 14 May, with subtitles). Meanwhile, Kim Sengupta for The Independent, writing on the 9 May attack on Mariupol mentions that “An assortment took part in the assault, including a private army supposedly bankrolled by an oligarch – the “men in black”…. Read More

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The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No89, 28 February 2013

Horizon Scanning for National security No89 – Look East: Indicators are turning red! The possibility of war – between China and Japan… and the US (security treaties can also have an escalating effect) and ? – is now very much on the agenda, despite all wishful thinking and previous disbelief. The dire financial situation of Japan, which everyone tries so hard to ignore, while US potential sequestration shockwaves nears and Europe polarizes, are not the most stabilizing context and factors. We had a window of opportunity, at the beginning of February, it closed. Shall we see another opening up of “the funnel of choices” (Nye, 1993: 68-69)?

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No86, 7 February 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security No86 – On the persistence, resilience and escalation of tensions… despite (past) appearance and hope.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No74, 15 November 2012

No74 – 15 November 2012 Patterns, battles and conflicts, ongoing, escalating or to come, emerge as articles are read in clusters, as a system: e.g. US as top oil producer with Peak oil theorists disagreeing, the battle for the Arctic, Chinese Energy thinking and 6C increase in temperatures. Click on image to read on Paper.li… Read More

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No55, 5 July 2012

No55 – 5 July 2012 – Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li (best with mobiles & tablets) Attrition warfare: This week is about positioning, reinforcing existing stances and trends, in a quiet but strong way, with, as result, a polarisation across issues, nothing obvious, flamboyant, easy to detect, but polarisation all the… Read More

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No34, 9th February 2012

No34, 9th February 2012 Not if but when? It looks like the small window of opportunity that was trying hard to open regarding Iran is closing, while weak signals are a warning of a revival of the global crisis throughout all countries, with China still cast as potential winner. Click on the picture below to access… Read More

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No33, 2nd February 2012

No33, 2nd February 2012 Convergence? As an opportunity to see tension appeased with Iran, although not shared by all, appears, as beliefs in financial and economic recovery emerge, convergence of heavy threats could also take place in the background, with now a heavy cyber-security component in terms of ways and means. Click on the picture below… Read More

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No32, 26th January 2012

No32, 26th January 2012 Domestic and international tensions are increasingly entwined in a pattern that is not likely to recede soon. Positively, an effort has started to tackle our very outdated models. Meanwhile our chessboard and the frontiers of plausibility are being redrawn to include space and cloaking. Click on the picture below to access… Read More