Tag Archives: Refugee

Syria, refugee camp, Syrian refugeeDespite the recent victory in Qusayr by the pro Al-Assad groups, and despite the strategic character of the city, this scenario  seems to be unlikely, but not impossible, in a very near future.
To obtain complete victory, we may assume that the regime of Bashar Al-Assad would continue and even strengthen his current strategy of population displacement and use of foreign forces. … Continue reading Strategic Intelligence for Syria – Scenario 3.4. Back to an Al-Assad Syria?

Scenario 2: No Syrian in Geneva
Geneva, conference, Syria peace conference The diplomatic talks fail and the international conference in Geneva does not take place or is a face-saving sham (see “Scenario 1: Peace in Geneva?” and its sub scenarios for what could result from a true international conference).
Considering the current forces on the ground and their balance, … Continue reading Strategic Intelligence Assessment for Syria (6) – Scenario 2: No Syrian in Geneva

Post updated 10 May 2012. Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent,Continue reading 2018 – 2023 EVT – A Polity in Shambles (Mamominarch)

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Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario,Continue reading 2018 – 2023 EVT – From Grievances to Political Mobilisation (Mamominarch)

To access this article, you must become one of our members. Methodological articles are also accessible through registration to our online course.
Log in if you are a member.