The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 23 January 2014 – The power of biases

Editorial – The power of biases: This week strikingly underlines the power of biases and how much beliefs and wishful thinking may overtake our understanding and lead human actions, constraining among other the timeliness of ideas and policies.  First, we have the sudden realization by Davos participants that yes, war between China and Japan is […]

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No93, 28 March 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security No93 – Are political authorities back? Many high-tech and cyber related signals emerged this week, from the massive DDoS attack to digital arm trade, right to kill hackers, DNA computing, quantum technology or space entrepreneurs, besides the possibility of renewed attacks by “climato-skeptics,” when scientists wonder if the frozen spring could be linked to a slower gulf stream, and when political impacts of natural catastrophes start being studies more consistently. Meanwhile, the Syrian quagmire deepens, progressively dragging the region in, and tensions in Northeast Asia heighten. And at the core…

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No89, 28 February 2013

Horizon Scanning for National security No89 – Look East: Indicators are turning red! The possibility of war – between China and Japan… and the US (security treaties can also have an escalating effect) and ? – is now very much on the agenda, despite all wishful thinking and previous disbelief. The dire financial situation of Japan, which everyone tries so hard to ignore, while US potential sequestration shockwaves nears and Europe polarizes, are not the most stabilizing context and factors. We had a window of opportunity, at the beginning of February, it closed. Shall we see another opening up of “the funnel of choices” (Nye, 1993: 68-69)?

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No86, 7 February 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security No86 – On the persistence, resilience and escalation of tensions… despite (past) appearance and hope.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No85, 31 January 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security No85 – Window of opportunity, rising tensions and creeping new order(s)? The political situation in Greece escalates, as in the MENA regions. Turkey’s interest in the SCO is particularly indicative. Positively, on China/Japan, a window of opportunity seems to be opening, yet on a backdrop of high tension, including considering the Japanese upcoming revision of wartime history… meanwhile a potential terrible new way to understand resilience regarding climate change would be emerging.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No84, 24 January 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security No84 – Wars in a revised socio-economic order – The gathered signals seem to point (unsurprisingly) towards the following questions: Will there be a war between China and Japan? Will Israel attack Iran? Will a new – or rather old (similar to what existed before the birth of the Soviet Union)- economy with entrenched inequalities and the disappearance of a large middle class settles in? Shall Greece be the first to violently rebel against it?

Pattern – Towards Polarization in the Western World?

The pattern that has been emerging over at least the beginning of the second decade of the twenty-first century is a rising polarization within Western society – or societies. In this article, we identified and analysed the trend through the related signal – the 14 November 2012 strikes. We evaluated the evolution toward polarization as […]

A New Opposition Nexus and Why it Matters for our Future: #OccupyWallStreet, Los Indignados, Anonymous and Others

How and why new political movements emerge in political systems; a framework to understand the various protest movements happening throughout the world.