In our previous article, we detailed a partition scenario where Libya splits into independent states along tribal and provincial lines, as well as a north-south axis, and in the one before, we focused on various possible spill over. This article focuses on a combination of the two cases, partition and spill over scenarios. … Continue reading Scenarios for the Future of Libya – Sc 2.4 Partition and Spill Over
Scenario 2: No Syrian in Geneva
The diplomatic talks fail and the international conference in Geneva does not take place or is a face-saving sham (see “Scenario 1: Peace in Geneva?” and its sub scenarios for what could result from a true international conference).
Considering the current forces on the ground and their balance, … Continue reading Strategic Intelligence Assessment for Syria (6) – Scenario 2: No Syrian in Geneva