Disruptive Questions – The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 9 July 2020

This is the 9 July 2020 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks (open access). Editorial: The tension with China does not stop rising, as the U.S. struggles painfully with the COVID-19 pandemic. As the world is now fraught with so much uncertainty, two actors notably, Turkey and India, try to take […]

How to Analyse Future Security Threats (4): Scenarios and War

This article focuses on scenarios for war. It explains first why scenarios need to be mutually exclusive. Then it provides logical templates for building scenarios dealing with war. Finally it offers an updated bibliography of scenarios for Syria over time. Towards an Operational Methodology to Analyse Future Security Threats and Political Risk (1) Methodology to […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
28 June 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals for strategic, political & geopolitical issues of interest to private and public actors. Find out more on horizon scanning, signals, what they are and how to use them: “Horizon Scanning and Monitoring for Anticipation: Definition and Practice“. Read below our latest complimentary Weekly horizon […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
14 June 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Read below our latest complimentary Weekly horizon scanning… Each section of the scan focuses on signals related to a specific theme: world (international politics and geopolitics); economy; science; analysis, strategy and futures; AI, technology and weapons; energy and environment. However, in a complex […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
17 May 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… This week, from Iran to Korea through China, Iraq, a degrading situation in Afghanistan, and a couple of interesting articles for the future of war(s) … For other weak (and strong) signals, read below our latest complimentary Weekly horizon scanning… Each section of the […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
12 April 2018

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Is a highly dangerous new phase of the war in Syria – to remain conservative – starting? Which actor(s) could best benefit (at least on the short-term) from such tragic developments? Read below our latest complimentary Weekly horizon scanning… Each section of the scan […]

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly –
14 September 2017 – Ignorance and Indifference in a Dangerous World?

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We are back to a thoroughly edited and categorised scan… (available below after the editorial). Editorial: What the scan does not stresses is the rising discrepancy between two worlds. One world (portrayed by the Weekly out of the choice of sources and keywords used […]

Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – A Salafist Victory?

In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a total victory in Libya in the medium term by al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for the lasting victory of each government, finding that a COR victory was least unlikely. Now that intervention is already occurring, as we saw in our article on intervention scenarios, the “Salafist Victory” scenarios are considered sub-scenarios of Scenario 2: Intervention instead of independent scenarios. As such, this will be reflected in the indicators, mapping and likelihoods. Indeed, as events unfolded and intervention took […]

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Towards Renewed War in Syria? The Kurds and Turkey

“The entire world should know that we will never allow the establishment of a terror state across our borders in northern Syria. … We will continue to crush the head of the serpents in their nests. Here is my message to those who want to block the steps we will take for the survival of our […]

Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – Scenarios of Victories (2)

In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a lasting victory by the GNC, GNA, and COR—in other words, the ability of each government to not only achieve victory, but also to maintain lasting control. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for the initial victory of each government, finding that a COR victory was least unlikely. Now that intervention is already occurring, as we saw in our article on intervention scenarios, the “Total Victory” scenarios are considered sub-scenarios of Scenario 2: Intervention instead of independent scenarios. As such, this will be reflected in […]

The remaining part of this article is for our members. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. Become one of our members and access this article. Log in if you are a member.

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