2012 predictions (4)

Jennifer Mc Lean, What Will Happen In 2012? (video)
Various authors for beyondbrics: a series – 12 for 2012 – that beyondbrics is running on key emerging markets topics for the coming year, The Financial Times, starting Dec 27, 2011:

  • Ivan Tchakarov of Renaissance Capital,

Continue reading 2012 predictions (4)

To access this article, you must become one of our members. Methodological articles are also accessible through registration to our online course.
Log in if you are a member.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No28, 29th December 2011

No28, 29th December 2011

The tension with Iran did not abate, while signs of spreading economic recession multiply. However, this end of year saw a boost in optimism in those focusing on high-tech and future technologies, however without questioning in which way resource depletion, economic and financial turmoil and related domestic impact as well as international rising tension – furthermore all interlinked – could affect technological development. Would we tend to be prey to technological determinism?

From Iran to global economic recession through technological determinism

2012 predictions (3)

2012 predictions (3)
Morgan Stanley, Global 2012 Outlook, Global economic Forum, December 15, 2011.
EconMatters, Debt Crisis 2012: Forget Europe, Check Out Japan, Zerohedge, 12/27/2011.
Council on Foreign Relations, The World Next Year: 2012 – A preview of world events in the coming year, (podcast), CFR multimedia, … Continue reading 2012 predictions (3)

To access this article, you must become one of our members. Methodological articles are also accessible through registration to our online course.
Log in if you are a member.

2012 predictions (2)

2012 predictions (2)
ZeroHedge, Globalization, The Decade Ahead, And Asymmetric Returns, 12/26/2011
ZeroHedge, Jim Rogers 2012 Outlook: Pessimism With Scattered Crises, 12/26/2011
Derek Abma on 2012 predictions by Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, “Canada to avoid recession next year despite Europe,” The Vancouver Sun,  … Continue reading 2012 predictions (2)

To access this article, you must become one of our members. Methodological articles are also accessible through registration to our online course.
Log in if you are a member.

2012 predictions for conventional and unconventional national security

2012 predictions for conventional and unconventional national security
Every year, a host of actors, from newspapers to magazines, from think tanks to futurists and other experts, publish predictions at the dawn of every New Year.
The aim here is to create a repository of all the predictions done for 2012 that are directly or indirectly related to national security, … Continue reading 2012 predictions for conventional and unconventional national security

To access this article, you must become one of our members. Methodological articles are also accessible through registration to our online course.
Log in if you are a member.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No27, 22d December 2011

No27, 22d December 2011

Weak signals of polarisation are emerging regarding the interactions between the new opposition nexus and political authorities, and prospects for further and more widespread instability rise, notably in India – no need to mention Europe anymore. In the meantime, international tension does not abate with Iran, and now a transition going on in North Korea. Meanwhile cybersecurity was very much spotted as being increasingly a concern, but nothing new here.

Nevertheless, a Merry Christmas or Season’s Greetings to all!

Creating Evertime

As underlined in Everstate’s characteristics, time in strategic foresight and warning is a crucial problem that still needs much effort and research before we obtain proper and actionable timelines – and this without even considering timeliness.
For the Chronicles of Everstate, I have been struggling with the best way to present time in our very imperfect knowledge and understanding context. … Continue reading Creating Evertime

To access this article, you must become one of our members. Methodological articles are also accessible through registration to our online course.
Log in if you are a member.

(Modified on December 19, 2010, 17:40 EST)
The initial variables chosen to start building our scenario are the five most important variables according to Eigenvector centrality, as explained in Revisiting influence analysis.
We shall now choose values for each criterion.
Consistency is then checked, but only for the variables that are linked (see the consistency matrix). … Continue reading Everstate’s characteristics

To access this article, you must become one of our members. Methodological articles are also accessible through registration to our online course.
Log in if you are a member.

Variables, Values and Consistency in Dynamic Networks

In this article we explain and discuss the methodological background that allows us to set the criteria for Everstate – or for any country or issue chosen – as exemplified in the post “Everstate’s characteristics.” Meanwhile, we also address the problem of consistency. … Continue reading Variables, Values and Consistency in Dynamic Networks

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No26, 15th December 2011

No26, 15th December 2011

Rising tension with Iran, Syria, disaster in Durban and more largely on the ecosystem front, China’s multi-dependency and the continuing financial Armageddon. Meanwhile, the paradigm slowly changes: in the U.S. higher taxes for the richest are discussed and …applied (not really on the agenda in ultra-liberal Europe?), while the structure of understanding/knowledge production is being reworked. Interesting times, not for the faint-hearted!