2012 predictions (4)

Jennifer Mc Lean, What Will Happen In 2012? (video)

Various authors for beyondbrics: a series – 12 for 2012 – that beyondbrics is running on key emerging markets topics for the coming year, The Financial Times, starting Dec 27, 2011:

Louise Arbour, Next Year’s Wars: Ten conflicts to watch in 2012, Foreign Policy, Dec 27, 2011

Ross Dawson, Twelve tech trends to shape our future, Technology Spectator, 21 Dec 2011

Roert Reich, My Political Prediction for 2012: It’s Obama-Clinton, The Huffington Post, 12/28/11.

Things That Make You Go Hmmm – 28th December.

Gordon G. Chang, The Coming Collapse of China: 2012 Edition, Foreign Policy, Dec 29, 2011.

IFTF, A Multiverse of Exploration: The Future of Science 2021, Dec 5, 2011.

Bryan Lufkin, InnovationNewsDaily Contributor, Institute for the Future Unveils Its Future Predictions, IFTF, 29 December 2011.

Yadullah Hussain, Too many wild cards cloud 2012 oil price outlook, Financial Post, Dec 30, 2011.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No28, 29th December 2011

No28, 29th December 2011

The tension with Iran did not abate, while signs of spreading economic recession multiply. However, this end of year saw a boost in optimism in those focusing on high-tech and future technologies, however without questioning in which way resource depletion, economic and financial turmoil and related domestic impact as well as international rising tension – furthermore all interlinked – could affect technological development. Would we tend to be prey to technological determinism?

From Iran to global economic recession through technological determinism

2012 predictions (3)

2012 predictions (3)

Morgan Stanley, Global 2012 Outlook, Global economic Forum, December 15, 2011.

EconMatters, Debt Crisis 2012: Forget Europe, Check Out Japan, Zerohedge, 12/27/2011.

Council on Foreign Relations, The World Next Year: 2012 – A preview of world events in the coming year, (podcast), CFR multimedia, December 22, 2011.

Council on Foreign Relations, Preventive Priorities Survey: 2012, CFR.com, December 8, 2011.

Council on Foreign Relations, Five Economic Trends to Watch in 2012, CFR.com, December 28, 2011.

Sundeep Waslekar (), 12 Trends To Watch For 2012 – OpEd, Eurasia Review, December 27, 2011.

Lance Ulanoff, 5 Tech Trends to Watch in 2012, Mashable Social Media, December 28, 2011.

Zachary Karabell, 2012 Economic Outlook: Why Things Are Better Than We Think, the Daily Beast, Dec 27, 2011.

James Petras, A Doomsday View of 2012, The James Petras website, December 24,  2011.


2012 predictions (2)

2012 predictions (2)

ZeroHedge, Globalization, The Decade Ahead, And Asymmetric Returns, 12/26/2011

ZeroHedge, Jim Rogers 2012 Outlook: Pessimism With Scattered Crises, 12/26/2011

Derek Abma on 2012 predictions by Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, “Canada to avoid recession next year despite Europe,” The Vancouver Sun, Financial Post, December 26, 2011

Ryan Mauro, Top 12 Threats to Watch in 2012, Family Security Matters, December 27, 2011

Tony Karon, “If 2011 Was a Turbulent Year for Obama’s Foreign Policy, 2012 Looks Set to Be Worse,” (Survey of the top ten global crisis issues facing the U.S. in the new year), Time.com Global Spin, December 27, 2011.

Moneycontrol bureau, “Keep your coats on! It’s going to be a stormy 2012,” (summary of financial and eco predictions by various financial firms/sources),  Moneycontrol.com, Dec 27, 2011.

Kurzweil AI, News, Cyber threats 2012: search poisoning, mobile Web attacks, selling social-media data, (through Futurist Foresight), October 12, 2011.

NASA, 2012: Beginning of the End or Why the World Won’t End?, 22 December, 2011.

Fiona Graham, Fantastic futures? Technology and business in 2012, BBC News Business, 27 December 2011.

2012 predictions for conventional and unconventional national security

2012 predictions for conventional and unconventional national security

Every year, a host of actors, from newspapers to magazines, from think tanks to futurists and other experts, publish predictions at the dawn of every New Year.

The aim here is to create a repository of all the predictions done for 2012 that are directly or indirectly related to national security, as primary material for all those who would like later on to sort them, analyse them and finally test them.

The section will be populated as forecasts and webpages are published and identified. You are most welcome to post a link to 2012 predictions you found or did in the comments. Please mention the origin, date, title and hyperlink.

And to start with:

The Economist, The World in 2012, with a twitter feed: @EconWorldin

The Economist, A year of living pigheadedly: America will be a tad cheerier than Europe in 2012—but it should be so much better still, Dec 17th 2011 | from the print edition

Michael Schrage, Innovative Ideas to Watch in 2012, Harvard Business Review blog, December 21, 2011

Michell Zappa, Envisioning emerging technology for 2012 and beyond, 2011?


The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No27, 22d December 2011

No27, 22d December 2011

Weak signals of polarisation are emerging regarding the interactions between the new opposition nexus and political authorities, and prospects for further and more widespread instability rise, notably in India – no need to mention Europe anymore. In the meantime, international tension does not abate with Iran, and now a transition going on in North Korea. Meanwhile cybersecurity was very much spotted as being increasingly a concern, but nothing new here.

Nevertheless, a Merry Christmas or Season’s Greetings to all!

Creating Evertime

As underlined in Everstate’s characteristics, time in strategic foresight and warning is a crucial problem that still needs much effort and research before we obtain proper and actionable timelines – and this without even considering timeliness. For the Chronicles of Everstate, I have been struggling with the best way to present time in our very … Continue reading Creating Evertime

(Modified on December 19, 2010, 17:40 EST) The initial variables chosen to start building our scenario are the five most important variables according to Eigenvector centrality, as explained in Revisiting influence analysis. We shall now choose values for each criterion. Consistency is then checked, but only for the variables that are linked (see the consistency … Continue reading Everstate’s characteristics

Variables, Values and Consistency in Dynamic Networks

In this article we explain and discuss the methodological background that allows us to set the criteria for Everstate – or for any country or issue chosen – as exemplified in the post “Everstate’s characteristics.” Meanwhile, we also address the problem of consistency.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No26, 15th December 2011

No26, 15th December 2011

Rising tension with Iran, Syria, disaster in Durban and more largely on the ecosystem front, China’s multi-dependency and the continuing financial Armageddon. Meanwhile, the paradigm slowly changes: in the U.S. higher taxes for the richest are discussed and …applied (not really on the agenda in ultra-liberal Europe?), while the structure of understanding/knowledge production is being reworked. Interesting times, not for the faint-hearted!