The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No124, 31 October 2013

A new world order in the making: America, Britain and Russia – The world is changing and the decisions taken by the various actors are not only reactions to those changes and their anticipated direction and impact, but also contributions towards the very evolution of the system. We thus see the U.S. revising – rather towards a wished lessened involvement – its Middle-East policy, while the region is in turmoil and being redesigned. Meanwhile, it seeks to step up its Asia-Pacific involvement (its strategic pivot to Asia), yet promoting a military strengthening of its partners, when the region already knows a rising level of tension. Could it be that those new American regional roles, notably when seen together, have the potential to both favour instability, even wars (what was tried to be avoided), while accelerating an American loss of influence? Meanwhile, Russia, as symbolized by Putin being voted the most powerful person of the year, gains in influence and power, and positions itself actively on all theaters, including newer ones such as the Arctic. Interestingly, the U.K., faithful to its history and despite the crisis (or spurred by it), also seems to be engaged in a pro-active strategy, which takes act of the changing world order: after having “cemented” the role of “London as renminbi hub” to build on the title of an article of the Financial Times (Lucy Hornby and Patrick Jenkins, 15 October 2013), it moves towards being the “first Western country to issue sovereign Islamic bonds”. The birth of the multi-polar world is indeed in full swing.

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horizon scanning, strategic warning, global risk, national security

About the author: Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the Director of The Red (Team) Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for national and international security issues. Her current focus is on Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Science, and Security. She teaches at Master level at SciencesPo-PSIA.

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