This article focuses on scenarios for war. It explains first why scenarios need to be mutually exclusive. Then it provides logical templates for building scenarios dealing with war. Finally it offers an updated bibliography of scenarios for Syria over time.
This text is part of a series that seeks to practically speed and ease the methodology to analyse future security threats, including scenario-building, yet without sacrificing quality. Throughout this series we thus share ways to fulfil the challenging criteria demanded by our time for future and risk analysis.
We clarified with the previous article the approach and mindset for the building of scenarios. Now, we address the practical part, how to concretely help speed the process of scenarios-building using logical ideal-type categories. Here, we focus on scenarios for war. With the next article, we move to scenarios for situations qualified as non-violent crises.
Mutually exclusive scenarios
- (Open Access) The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 12 December 2019
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- U.S. National Security Commission for Artificial Intelligence Interim report – Signal
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As a preamble, it is necessary to emphasize a crucial rule. To quote Glenn and The Futures Group International:
“When a set of scenarios is prepared, each scenario usually treats the same or similar parameters, but the evolution and actual value of the parameters described in each scenario are different.”Glenn, Jerome C. and The Futures Group International, “Scenarios,” p.4
Featured image: 3 Possible scenarios of the Soviet invasion of Iran from the same CIA estimate 1985 by Central Intelligence Agency Office of Public Affairs Washington, D.C. [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons.