In many foresight methods, once you have identified the main factors or variables and reach the moment to develop the narrative for the scenarios, you are left with no guidance regarding the way to accomplish this step, beyond something along the line of “flesh out the scenario and develop the story.”* … Continue reading Constructing a Foresight Scenario’s Narrative with Ego Networks
In this article we explain and discuss the methodological background that allows us to set the criteria for Everstate – or for any country or issue chosen – as exemplified in the post “Everstate’s characteristics.” Meanwhile, we also address the problem of consistency. … Continue reading Variables, Values and Consistency in Dynamic Networks
Once variables (also called factors and drivers according to authors) have been identified – and in our case mapped, most foresight methodologies aim at reducing their number, i.e. keeping only a few of those variables.
Indeed, considering cognitive limitations, as well as finite resources, one tries obtaining a number of variables that can be easily and relatively quickly combined by the human brain. … Continue reading Revisiting influence analysis
Map, graph or network as model
Once an initial question is defined – for example, what will be the future of the modern nation-state for the next twenty years – most methodologies start with building a strategic foresight and warning model, which will describe and explain the issue or question at hand. In other words, we construct our underlying model for understanding. … Continue reading Creating a Foresight and Warning Model: Mapping a Dynamic Network (I)
Go back to Part 1
Actually, any SF&W model as it primarily deals with time should be a dynamic network. How can we expect obtaining any potential outline for the future if our model for understanding is static? … Continue reading Creating a Foresight or Warning Model: Mapping a Dynamic Network (II)