Environment and Geopolitics

Our Foresights and Insights

Understanding, anticipating, and preparing for the series of powerful planetary geophysical and biological changes, already under way, that will exponentially impact all human activities in the future, creating new uncertainty.

On 24 September 2018, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce imposed new tariffs on 200 billion dollars worth of Chinese goods, thus widely escalating the “trade war” initiated by president Donald Trump against China in April 2018. Beijing immediately retaliated with tariffs on 60 billions worth of American goods (Will Martin, “China Hits Back at Trump with Tariffs on $60 Billion of US Goods”, … Continue reading The U.S. Economy, between the Climate Hammer and the Trade War Anvil – the Soybean Case

[Fully rewritten version v3] To exist, risk and foresight products as well as warnings must be delivered to those who must act upon them, the customers, clients or users. These anticipation analyses must also be actionable, which means that they need to include the right information necessary to see action taken. … Continue reading Revisiting Timeliness for Strategic Foresight and Warning and Risk Management

Florence, the monster storm that landed on the coasts of North and South Carolina on 12 September, is triggering massive flooding. It looks like a new climate-related disaster “peak”.  It could announce a transition towards possibly worse, considering the last 12 months of climate hellish conditions.
Thus, a major question arises: is climate change becoming a major risk for the U.S. … Continue reading Of Fire and Storm – Climate Change, the “Unseen” Risk for the U.S. Economy – State of Play

This article looks at the way the warming ocean exerts a growing pressure on food security and the economy. It is a follow-up to “The U.S. Navy vs Climate Change Insecurity” (Jean-Michel Valantin, June 15, 2018), where we focused on the current climate and ocean change becoming a major strategic threat, because of the rapid rise of the ocean level.  … Continue reading The Warming Ocean as Planetary Threat

The U.S. Navy is under higher and growing pressure from climate and ocean change. This situation is emphasized in The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Department of Defense Installations on Atolls in the Pacific Ocean (Curt D. Storlazzi, Stephen B. Gingerich et al., February 2018, full pdf report), … Continue reading The U.S. Navy vs Climate and Ocean Change Insecurity (1)

The United Arab Emirates is shifting rapidly towards the artificial intelligence revolution. This shift is expressed by numerous decisions taken by the highest U.A.E. political authorities. For example, on 16 October 2017, the Sheikh Mohamed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, vice-president of the U.A.E. and ruler of Dubai, appointed Omar Bin Sultan al Olama as minister for artificial intelligence (AI) of the Union. … Continue reading The U.A.E. and the Artificial Intelligence and Sustainability Revolution

This article explains further what a cryptocurrency is, with the examples of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple, focusing on the most common underlying technology, the blockchain and its implementation. It underlines commonalities and differences between the three cryptocurrencies, starting highlighting their potential advantages and dangers compared with classical international currencies. It notably singles out one of the main challenges characterizing the Bitcoin phenomenon: energy sustainability.

Impacts and Consequences

  • Increased likelihood to see a return to a more influential and independent foreign policy of the European states holders of veto power at UN Security Council (France and UK);
  • Increased likelihood to see a multipolar world settling in, however with also an
  • Increased likelihood to see a global perception of a rising Chinese global influence;

Continue reading Signal: China – France Strengthening Relations

The artificial intelligence (AI) world summit took place in Singapore on 3 and 4 October 2017 (The AI summit Singapore). If we follow this global trend of heavy emphasis on AI, we can note the convergence between artificial intelligence and the emergence of “smart cities” in Asia, especially in China (Imran Khan, … Continue reading The Chinese Artificial Intelligence Revolution

Bilingual text EN-FR – Invitation to book launch, then presentation of Dr Jean-Michel Valantin, Géopolitique d’une Planète Déréglée.

English invitation: Join us on 7 Novembre, 19h15 for Dr Jean-Michel Valantin Géopolitique d’une Planète Déréglée book launch, at Sciences Po, 13 rue de l’Université, Amphi Erignac, with a debate on “current geopolitics and the Anthropocene”Continue reading Event – Book Launch / Lancement “Géopolitique d’une Planète Déréglée”