Energy Security

Our Foresights and Insights

From the analysis of signals to in-depth research articles on energy security, its future and related political and geopolitical risks and uncertainties.

On 24 September 2018, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce imposed new tariffs on 200 billion dollars worth of Chinese goods, thus widely escalating the “trade war” initiated by president Donald Trump against China in April 2018. Beijing immediately retaliated with tariffs on 60 billions worth of American goods (Will Martin, “China Hits Back at Trump with Tariffs on $60 Billion of US Goods”, … Continue reading The U.S. Economy, between the Climate Hammer and the Trade War Anvil – the Soybean Case

[Fully rewritten version v3] To exist, risk and foresight products as well as warnings must be delivered to those who must act upon them, the customers, clients or users. These anticipation analyses must also be actionable, which means that they need to include the right information necessary to see action taken. … Continue reading Revisiting Timeliness for Strategic Foresight and Warning and Risk Management

Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals…

Editorial

The evolution of the geopolitical situation around Iran increasingly  generates a feeling of déjà vu for European companies. Non-European actors, chiefly among them the U.S. take political, strategic and geopolitical  decisions in the name of their national interest (and lobby groups), … Continue reading Iran: Are European Firms Being Sacrificed Again? The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 31 May 2018

The April and May 2018 Chinese successful deep sea explorations in the South China Sea lead to novel future possibilities, including a rising uncertainty in the security and resource sectors for all actors, states and companies alike, involving a complete redrawing of the influence map, of the capabilities needed and relatedly of the strategies and policies to develop and implement.

For this strategic foresight and warning series focused on the future of Iran notably as a regional player, within the next three to five years, we shall start analysing Iran’s history and political institutions and then we shall investigate Iran’s relations with leading regional and global powers.

Is space mining the short and long-term future for energy and industry?
Nowadays, this question is rooted in the rapid development of the industrial, financial, technological and legal apparatus around the idea of mining asteroids. For example, on 6 January 2015, the US President, then Barack Obama, signed the US commercial space launch competitiveness act. This act aims at “spurring private aerospace competitiveness and entrepreneurship” (US Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act). … Continue reading Space Mining, Artificial Intelligence and Transition?

The United Arab Emirates is shifting rapidly towards the artificial intelligence revolution. This shift is expressed by numerous decisions taken by the highest U.A.E. political authorities. For example, on 16 October 2017, the Sheikh Mohamed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, vice-president of the U.A.E. and ruler of Dubai, appointed Omar Bin Sultan al Olama as minister for artificial intelligence (AI) of the Union. … Continue reading The U.A.E. and the Artificial Intelligence and Sustainability Revolution

Massive geopolitical changes are occurring in the Arctic, because of the rapid warming of this region due to climate change. These geopolitical shifts are particularly important in the Russian Arctic Exclusive Economic Zone, which spans from the Bering Strait to Norway, along the Siberian coast. This is where Russia develops the North East passage known as the “Northern Sea Route”. … Continue reading The Russian Arctic, China’s (Digital) Development and Northern Europe

This article explains further what a cryptocurrency is, with the examples of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple, focusing on the most common underlying technology, the blockchain and its implementation. It underlines commonalities and differences between the three cryptocurrencies, starting highlighting their potential advantages and dangers compared with classical international currencies. It notably singles out one of the main challenges characterizing the Bitcoin phenomenon: energy sustainability.

Impacts and Consequences

  • Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the global U.S. influence and power lowered;
  • Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the regional (Middle East) U.S. influence and power lowered.

Should China step in successfully as peace broker between Israelis and Palestinians

  • Increased likelihood to see global perception of a new Chinese regional (Middle East) influence
  • Increased likelihood to see global perception of a rising Chinese global influence
  • Increased likelihood to see rising tensions between the U.S.

Continue reading Signals: Jerusalem – The U.S. Defeated at the U.N., China Seeks Advantage?