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Thomas Homer-Dixon, in his fascinating The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of civilization (Knopf, 2006) reflected upon the fall of Rome and its civilization and other disasters to identify how and why a society could break down and how to avoid such a fate. In a nutshell, he shows that five tectonic stresses (population, energy, environment, climate and economy) accumulate, which then combine with two multipliers (the rising speed and global connectivity, and the escalating destructive power of small groups) “to make breakdown more likely, widespread, and severe.” Among these five tectonic stresses, he underlines that energy is particularly important because it is a master resource. Indeed, energy is embedded in every parcel of our contemporary lives, from every step of the food chain, to transportation, industry, trade and availability of goods, defense, etc.

Considering the crucial importance of energy for our civilization and the impact of its use on the environment, it is necessary to understand the issue at hand, and to keep abreast of developments in this area to be able to anticipate potential evolutions and how they will affect us and more generally all actors.

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Analysis

Impact on Issues

➚➚➚  / Iraq vs Kurds – Syria  – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension
➚➚  Iran Iraqi and regional influence
Russia, U.S.,

Continue reading Signals: Kurd Military Command on Kirkuk; Iran again…

Impact on Issues

➚➚  / Iraq vs Kurds – Syria  – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension
➚  Iran Iraqi and regional influence
Russia, U.S.,

Continue reading Signals: Towards War In Iraq between Kurds and Iraqis, Iran…

Impact on Issues

➘  / Iraq vs Kurds – Syria  – ➘ Russia Conundrum
Russia Influence – ➘ Middle East Tension –

Continue reading Signals: Russia Unveils Policy on Iraq Kurds Independence, Iraqis and Kurds discuss…

Impact on Issues

➚➚ Syria & Iraq – Gulf Crisis – ➚➚ Russia Conundrum

Turkey President Erdogan declaration would tend to confirm the harsh and unremitting position that Turkey, Iran and Iraq have been taking since the beginning on the issue of Iraqi Kurds independence. … Continue reading Signal: Turkey about to close Iraq border and air space – Iraq Kurds Independence

Impact on Issues

➚➚ Gulf Crisis – Russia Conundrum – ➚➚ Syria & Iraq

The aftermath of the Kurdish referendum in Iraq continues to send shock waves, as the Kurds persist in wanting their independence while Iraq and their neighbours, … Continue reading Signal: Iran Turkey Boost Military Ties – Iraq Kurds Independence

Impact on Issues

➚➚ Gulf Crisis ➚➚ Syria & Iraq

Should we expect further rapprochement between Turkey and Iran, which could, in turn, further tense the Gulf crisis as well as the situation in Syria (and obviously Iraq)?
Related articles

Continue reading Signal: Turkey and Iran discuss Iraqi Kurdish referendum

During March 2017, King Salman of Saudi Arabia ended a six weeks tour in Asia with a state visit in China and a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This visit included the opportunity to start the negotiations about the integration of Saudi Arabia to the Chinese New Silk Road Grand strategy (Michael Tanchum, “Saudi Arabia the next stop on China’s maritime silk road”, … Continue reading Saudi Arabia and the Chinese New Silk Road

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and China are negotiating, at the highest level, the integration of the UAE into the Chinese New Silk Road (NSR) initiative, also called the “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative (Sarah Townsend, “UAE and China “working to restore silk road trading route””, Arabian Business.com, … Continue reading The UAE and the Chinese New Silk Road

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This article looks at the way the current militarization of maritime segments of the Chinese New Silk Road is implemented in the Arabian Sea, and related consequences on geopolitics, including for businesses. It is the second part of a series, the first one focusing on militarization in the South China Sea (Jean-Michel Valantin, “Militarizing the Chinese New Silk Road Part (Part1)”, … Continue reading Militarizing the Maritime New Silk Road (2) – In the Arabian Sea

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There are (more and more) missiles on the road.
What we call here “the great roads” are created as answers to the necessity for Russia and China to connect Asian countries with resources from and markets of Russia and Europe. After having seen the ways the Russian are militarizing their Northern Sea Route (Jean-Michel Valantin, “Militarizing the Great Resources Roads- Part 1 – Russia”, … Continue reading Militarizing the Chinese New Silk Road (part 1)

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