While a violent battle to win the minds through information, misinformation, manipulation, and deception is at work around Syria, the international order is changing out of the interactions between players. Will the post-1945 order prove resilient enough or are we heading towards a system that will look more like a 19th century Europe, or shall… Read More
Horizon Scanning for National Security No92 – Global Experiment and Fog of Transition: Those two labels – the first borrowed from Paul Krugman’s now famous interview, and the second from Global Trends 2030, among others, itself adapted from von Clausewitz’s fog of war – seem to describe most aptly the current period, and the short (to medium?) term future.
Climate change is not only a far away danger. Its effects have also most probably already started impacting us, as the rising number of natural catastrophes and related overall losses worldwide show. What are the consequences on states and governments? Should we continue reducing public expenditures in those conditions?
No74 – 15 November 2012 Patterns, battles and conflicts, ongoing, escalating or to come, emerge as articles are read in clusters, as a system: e.g. US as top oil producer with Peak oil theorists disagreeing, the battle for the Arctic, Chinese Energy thinking and 6C increase in temperatures. Click on image to read on Paper.li… Read More
No72 – 1 November 2012 Some weak signals towards a change of paradigm, besides the usual tense hotspots and their aftermaths – which do contribute to the change of paradigm. Maybe an opening window of opportunity that might ease the escalation Israel-Iran… “maybe” because, there, signals are contradicting. Click on image to read on Paper.li… Read More
Last week’s summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state) sees a mounting discontent of its population because it has become insecure considering the impact of the new still misunderstood conditions. Three related phenomena drive Everstatan political authorities’ incapacity to deliver security. First, Everstate faces a changing set of resources implying an income that is relatively too low while costs and expenditures resulting from accumulated threats and pressures rise inexorably. Added to an Inability to understand the situation and a use of past recipe, this leads to both a chronic and deepening budget deficit and an increasing demand for liquidity. Individually, citizens face the same challenge, which heightens the need for liquidity. (The reader can click… Read More
That year, in Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of the modern nation-state), people seek security as they increasingly feel the negative impact of various pressures and threats on their life. Henceforth they turn to their political authorities and even start trying to compel them to provide this security. Through those actions, Everstatans start to remember that, as part of the nation, they are also rulers of Everstate. Yet, the situation is growing worse because the tasks of governance have grown more complex while the governing system and the polity are not yet adapted to the new conditions.
The first phenomenon driving Everstatan political authorities’ incapacity to deliver security is a deepening budget deficit and an increasing need for liquidity[…]
No28, 29th December 2011 The tension with Iran did not abate, while signs of spreading economic recession multiply. However, this end of year saw a boost in optimism in those focusing on high-tech and future technologies, however without questioning in which way resource depletion, economic and financial turmoil and related domestic impact as well as… Read More